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Iran’s conflict with the United States and Israel is raising risks across global markets, particularly through potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. Energy, LNG, fertiliser and metals supply chains are increasingly exposed, while defence spending expectations are rising. The duration of the conflict will determine whether market impacts remain contained or escalate further.
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Iran’s conflict with the United States and Israel is raising risks across global markets, particularly through potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. Energy, LNG, fertiliser and metals supply chains are increasingly exposed, while defence spending expectations are rising. The duration of the conflict will determine whether market impacts remain contained or escalate further.
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Alors que l’économie mondiale entre dans une phase d’expansion tardive en 2026, les matières premières pourraient bénéficier davantage de changements structurels que d’une reprise cyclique. Les vents contraires pesant sur le dollar, les contraintes réglementaires sur l’offre et la fragmentation géopolitique croissante soutiennent les métaux, l’or s’affirmant comme actif de réserve stratégique et le cuivre reflétant la demande liée à l’électrification à long terme.
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Markets are treating Greenland de-escalation as a pause, not a resolution. History suggests escalation opens negotiations, keeping volatility alive. A weaker dollar, resilient gold and strong European defence stocks reflect uncertainty — with tariff risks and legal limits still shaping what comes next.
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A wave of shocks has driven several asset classes higher in 2025. Precious metals, European defence, rare earth miners, the nuclear revival and Japanese equities stand out as top performers, with structural tailwinds suggesting their strength could extend into 2026.
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Venezuela’s regime change is a major geopolitical shock with modest implications for global growth but meaningful consequences for energy markets, commodities and equities. Oil markets remain well supplied, gold benefits from higher geopolitical risk, and equity effects favour refiners, energy consumers and defence, while reinforcing the long-term case for renewables.
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Au cours de la dernière décennie, le bitcoin a surpassé l’or en termes de rendements ajustés au risque, remettant en question les normes traditionnelles des actifs refuges. Alors que la volatilité diminue et que l’adoption institutionnelle s’intensifie, les investisseurs considèrent de plus en plus le bitcoin comme un complément à fort potentiel de hausse par rapport à l’or, élargissant ainsi l’arsenal défensif des portefeuilles actuels.
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