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The expected US-Iran MoU has shifted oil market focus from supply disruption to supply recovery. While reopening the Strait of Hormuz could restore oil flows, uncertainties remain around security, insurance and sanctions relief. Iranian production recovery and the UAE's exit from OPEC could boost supply, while weak Asian demand raises the risk of a significant oil surplus emerging in 2027.
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The expected US-Iran MoU has shifted oil market focus from supply disruption to supply recovery. While reopening the Strait of Hormuz could restore oil flows, uncertainties remain around security, insurance and sanctions relief. Iranian production recovery and the UAE's exit from OPEC could boost supply, while weak Asian demand raises the risk of a significant oil surplus emerging in 2027.
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Global oil inventories are falling at a record pace as the Strait of Hormuz disruption removes around 13 million barrels per day of supply. While headline inventories remain high, usable stocks are being depleted rapidly. As inventories approach operational limits, the market's ability to absorb further shocks diminishes, increasing the risk of a sharp spike in oil prices.
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Agricultural commodities are re-rating in 2026 as two converging supply shocks — the Iran war's disruption to fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz and a developing El Niño, compress production across grains, oilseeds, and softs simultaneously.
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Les perspectives de l’argent dépendent moins de ses fondamentaux propres que de sa relation avec l’or. Si la faiblesse de la demande industrielle et joaillière ainsi que des flux d’investissement modérés peuvent constituer des vents contraires à court terme, ces facteurs ne devraient pas l’emporter sur un contexte macroéconomique favorable aux métaux précieux. Le marché restant en déficit et les moteurs structurels de la demande demeurant intacts, l’argent reste bien positionné pour bénéficier d’un potentiel de hausse supplémentaire, malgré une volatilité persistante.
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The Iran conflict may appear as an energy shock, but its impact runs much deeper. Disruptions to LNG, fertilisers and key chemical inputs are cascading through global supply chains, affecting metals and industrial production. Even if the Strait reopens, recovery will be slow, reinforcing the case for broader commodity exposure beyond oil and gas.
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Iran’s conflict with the United States and Israel is raising risks across global markets, particularly through potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. Energy, LNG, fertiliser and metals supply chains are increasingly exposed, while defence spending expectations are rising. The duration of the conflict will determine whether market impacts remain contained or escalate further.
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