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WisdomTree Insights
Iran’s conflict with the United States and Israel is raising risks across global markets, particularly through potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. Energy, LNG, fertiliser and metals supply chains are increasingly exposed, while defence spending expectations are rising. The duration of the conflict will determine whether market impacts remain contained or escalate further.
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Iran’s conflict with the United States and Israel is raising risks across global markets, particularly through potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. Energy, LNG, fertiliser and metals supply chains are increasingly exposed, while defence spending expectations are rising. The duration of the conflict will determine whether market impacts remain contained or escalate further.
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As the global economy enters a late-cycle expansion in 2026, commodities stand to benefit from structural change rather than cyclical recovery. Dollar headwinds, policy-constrained supply and rising geopolitical fragmentation favour metals, with gold emerging as a strategic reserve asset and copper reflecting long-term electrification demand.
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Markets are treating Greenland de-escalation as a pause, not a resolution. History suggests escalation opens negotiations, keeping volatility alive. A weaker dollar, resilient gold and strong European defence stocks reflect uncertainty — with tariff risks and legal limits still shaping what comes next.
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A wave of shocks has driven several asset classes higher in 2025. Precious metals, European defence, rare earth miners, the nuclear revival and Japanese equities stand out as top performers, with structural tailwinds suggesting their strength could extend into 2026.
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Venezuela’s regime change is a major geopolitical shock with modest implications for global growth but meaningful consequences for energy markets, commodities and equities. Oil markets remain well supplied, gold benefits from higher geopolitical risk, and equity effects favour refiners, energy consumers and defence, while reinforcing the long-term case for renewables.
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Over the past decade, bitcoin has outperformed gold on risk-adjusted returns, challenging traditional safe-haven norms. As volatility declines and institutional adoption grows, investors are increasingly viewing bitcoin as a high-upside complement to gold – broadening the defensive toolkit in modern portfolios.
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