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Macro Alerts
Analysing the 2015 Europe Hedged Equity Rebalance
08 lug 2015
Viktor Nossek , Director of Research


Europe has been a bright spot for equity market performance thus far in 2015. One broad index of Eurozone stocks—measured in euros—was up over 18% through May 29, while the S&P 500 was up just 3%.[1]

That said, due to the decline in the euro over this period, U.S. investors had to hedge exposure to the euro to receive these returns; otherwise, returns were over 10 percentage points lower.[2]

Trimming Big Winners

The strong gains in European markets has led some strategists to suggest that certain European stocks are getting richly priced. The year-over-year change in Eurozone dividends from last year’s rebalance was just 8.5%,[3] suggesting that overall the market gains are coming from rising valuation multiples.

Consumer Staples have been particularly called out for their gains. Consumer Staples stocks are often large global multinationals that over time should benefit from a weaker euro.

Since last year’s rebalance of the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Index, the Consumer Staples sector, which at nearly one-quarter of the Index weight represented the largest sector exposure, had the greatest returns (up over 27%) while the broader Index was up only 14% over the period.

It is these types of gains—especially when stocks are rising more than their fundamentals—that create opportunities to conduct a relative value rebalance in search of better valuations.

Sector Changes at This Year’s Rebalance

WisdomTree’s developed international dividend-weighted Indexes rebalance every June. Below we outline the major sector and country changes that occurred at this year’s rebalance of the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Index.

  • Reducing Consumer Staples: The biggest change was the reduction by 4.7% allocated to the Consumer Staples sector. Another notable outperforming sector was Health Care, which had returns over 25% and saw its weight reduced by almost 1 percentage point.
  • Adding Weight to Cyclicals: The sectors that added weight were some of the more cyclical sectors—Financials, Materials and Industrials collectively received the increased weight that Consumer Staples lost. All three of these sectors had below-average returns since the last rebalance. Notably, after the rebalance both the Consumer Discretionary and Industrials sectors will have greater weights than the Consumer Staples sector.
  • Technology with Good Returns, Increased Weight: The Tech sector is one sector whose weight increased despite having gains over 25%. This is because Tech dividends grew even more—Eurozone technology stocks had dividends that grew over 30%, leading growth in all sectors and causing an increase in weight.

Country Changes Not as Significant

On a country basis, there were fewer changes of notable magnitude. The greatest increase in weight came from Spain and is related to some of the large Financials that had underperformed, as discussed above. The Netherlands and Belgium had stocks in the Consumer Staples and Health Care sector that saw their weight decreased, which is why those countries saw their weights lowered. There was a marginal increase in weight to some of the peripheral countries such as Spain, Italy, Portugal and away from Germany, France and the Netherlands, but, again, these were smaller changes than the sector changes discussed above.

Details behind Sector & Country Changes

  details behind sector & country changes

In general, what powers the changes in weight at WisdomTree’s annual rebalance is a disciplined process focused on relative valuations. These changes generally can be described as:

  • Stocks getting more expensive—measured on a price-to-dividend basis—receive less weight
  • Stocks getting less expensive—measured on a price-to-dividend basis—receive more weight

As investors look abroad for global opportunities, WisdomTree believes currency hedging is an important strategy for reflecting and capturing what is happening in the local equity markets—without additional noise from the currency movements.

With the increased flows and attraction to these strategies, WisdomTree believes the valuation sensitivity baked into WisdomTree’s Index methodology makes its hedged strategies more attractive.

Investors sharing this sentiment may consider the following short ETPs:

 All data is sourced from WisdomTree Europe and Bloomberg, unless otherwise stated.

[1] “Eurozone stocks” refers to the MSCI EMU IMI universe, with performance measured from 12/31/14 to 5/31/15. Source: Bloomberg.

[2] Returns of the MSCI EMU IMI measured in U.S. dollars were more than 10% below those of the MSCI EMU IMI measured in euros.

[3] Refers to the year-over-year change in Dividend Stream® for the universe of companies in the WisdomTree DEFA Index that are incorporated in the Eurozone. Period: 5/31/14 to 5/31/15 Index screening dates.  


Disclaimer

WisdomTree Europe Ltd is an appointed representative of Mirabella Financial Services LLP which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The value of an investment in ETPs may go down as well as up and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. An investment in ETPs is dependent on the performance of the underlying index, less costs, but it is not expected to match that performance precisely. ETPs involve numerous risks including among others, general market risks relating to the relevant underlying index, credit risks on the provider of index swaps utilised in the ETP, exchange rate risks, interest rate risks, inflationary risks, liquidity risks and legal and regulatory risks. ETPs offering daily leveraged or daily short exposures (“Leveraged ETPs”) are products which feature specific risks that prospective investors should understand before investing in them. Higher volatility of the underlying indices and holding periods longer than a day may have an adverse impact on the performance of Leveraged ETPs.  As such, Leveraged ETPs are intended for financially sophisticated investors who wish to take a short term view on the underlying indices. As a consequence, WisdomTree Europe Ltd is not promoting or marketing BOOST ETPs to Retail Clients. Investors should refer to the section entitled "Risk Factors" and “Economic Overview of the ETP Securities” in the Prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in Leveraged ETPs and consult their financial advisors as needed.  Within the United Kingdom, this document is only made available to professional clients and eligible counterparties as defined by the FCA. Under no circumstances should this document be forwarded to anyone in the United Kingdom who is not a professional client or eligible counterparty as defined by the FCA.This marketing information is intended for professional clients & sophisticated investors (as defined in the glossary of the FCA Handbook) only. This marketing information is derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable although WisdomTree Europe Ltd does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of such information. All registered trademarks referred to herein have been licensed for use. None of the products discussed above are sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by any registered trademark owner and such owners make no representation or warranty regarding the advisability on dealing in any of the ETPs.

Macro Alerts, Equities, Europe / Eurozone


This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, its officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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