WisdomTree
Gold Monthly
September 2025

Nitesh Shah
Head of Commodities and Macroeconomic Research, WisdomTree Europe
Nitesh Shah is a seasoned financial professional with over 24 years of experience in research and investment strategy. As Head of Commodities & Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree Europe, he leads market analysis and insights across asset classes, with a focus on commodities and exchange-traded products. Previously, he held roles at Moody’s, HSBC Investment Bank, The Pension Protection Fund, and Decision Economics, building expertise in market analysis and strategy.
Nitesh earned a master’s degree in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University and a bachelor's in Economics from the London School of Economics. His insights are frequently featured in financial media, and he is a sought-after speaker at industry events. He also hosts the ‘Commodity Exchange’ podcast, where he discusses trends shaping global markets. Passionate about guiding investors, Nitesh provides actionable insights to help them navigate complex financial landscapes.
Real gold prices at record highs
Gold reached fresh record highs in September, not just in nominal terms, but in real terms as well. Adjusted for inflation, gold prices have now surpassed the 1980 peak for the first time. On 18 September 2025, the metal pushed past $3,700/oz intraday.
Figure 1: Gold in nominal and real terms
Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. Nominal is LBMA PM fixing. Real deflated by US CPI index. January 1947 to September 2025. Gold data daily. CPI data monthly. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance, and any investments may go down in value.
Breakout after summer consolidation
Following a period of range-bound trading through much of the summer, gold broke higher with conviction at the start of September. As we highlighted in our July outlook, the ‘spring-loading’ phase has now given way to an explosive price surge.
Figure 2: Gold price with Fibonacci retracement lines
Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. September 2024 – September 2025. Fibonacci retracement is a technical analysis tool used to identify potential support and resistance levels on price charts. It uses horizontal lines drawn at key Fibonacci ratios (23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, and 76.4%) after identifying a significant price swing. Upper band positioned at pre-September 2025. These levels are believed to be areas where price may stall or reverse direction. Labels on the chart represent the gold price of the support levels. Legend indicates the standard Fibonacci ratios. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance, and any investments may go down in value.
Dollar weakness as a key driver
Gold’s rally has been aided by significant US dollar depreciation, with the dollar down nearly 10% year-to-date. The Federal Reserve (Fed) restarted its interest rate cutting cycle in September, and markets anticipate further easing at a faster pace than the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of Japan (BOJ). This divergence increases the likelihood of widening international interest rate differentials, a dynamic that should continue to weaken the dollar. Importantly, the current Trump Administration appears unlikely to resist downside pressure on the currency.
Figure 3: Gold and US dollar basket
Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. September 2024 to September 2025. Daily data. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance, and any investments may go down in value.
Global trading dynamics
Earlier this year, from January to April, the gold rally was largely driven outside of core London trading hours, suggesting Asian buying was the main driver. In contrast, the most recent surge has been more broad-based, with strong price action during both London and non-London hours.
Figures 4 and 5: Gold price moves in different trading time windows
Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg, 31/12/2024 – 12/09/2025. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance, and any investments may go down in value.
ETP flow trends
Flows into gold-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs) have strengthened notably in Europe in recent months. North America continues to dominate overall flows, while Asian participation has moderated. After exceptionally strong inflows in April, Asia recorded outflows in both May and August.
Figure 6: ETP monthly flows
Source: WisdomTree, World Gold Council, May 2024 – August 2025. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance, and any investments may go down in value.
Conclusion
Gold has broken into uncharted territory in real terms, fuelled by dollar weakness, central bank policy divergence and broad-based investor participation. While regional ETP flows remain uneven, the underlying drivers point to a supportive environment for the metal in the months ahead.