WisdomTree
Gold Monthly
October 2025
Nitesh Shah
Head of Commodities and Macroeconomic Research, WisdomTree Europe
Nitesh Shah is a seasoned financial professional with over 24 years of experience in research and investment strategy. As Head of Commodities & Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree Europe, he leads market analysis and insights across asset classes, with a focus on commodities and exchange-traded products. Previously, he held roles at Moody’s, HSBC Investment Bank, The Pension Protection Fund, and Decision Economics, building expertise in market analysis and strategy.
Nitesh earned a master’s degree in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University and a bachelor's in Economics from the London School of Economics. His insights are frequently featured in financial media, and he is a sought-after speaker at industry events. He also hosts the ‘Commodity Exchange’ podcast, where he discusses trends shaping global markets. Passionate about guiding investors, Nitesh provides actionable insights to help them navigate complex financial landscapes.
Gold monthly: Gold breaches $4,300/oz for the first time
Gold hits new records amid mounting fiscal worries
Gold prices have surged to an all-time high, breaching $4,300 per ounce for the first time in history. Mounting concerns about rising indebtedness and growing economic policy uncertainty have driven investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold’s performance has been impressive not just in nominal terms but also relative to other asset classes, significantly outperforming major equity and bond benchmarks over the past month.
Figure 1: Economic policy uncertainty
Source: Economic Uncertainty Indices by Baker, Bloom, Davis of Stanford University. January 1997 – September 2025. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance, and any investments may go down in value.
Investor enthusiasm builds despite data blackout
The US government shutdown has temporarily halted the release of Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data, limiting visibility into speculative positioning. However, flows into gold exchange-traded products (ETPs) provide a compelling alternative proxy.
Global holdings are rapidly approaching 100 million ounces, a level not seen since 2022, suggesting renewed institutional and retail participation. The acceleration in inflows over recent weeks signals that gold’s rally is being broadly supported, not merely driven by short-term speculative activity.
Figure 2: Gold held in exchange-traded-products (ETPs)
Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. July 2019 – October 2025. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance, and any investments may go down in value.
Gold firing on all cylinders
Gold is benefitting from a rare alignment of supportive factors:
- US dollar depreciation as fiscal risks mount and real yield differentials narrow.
- Bond yield compression, reflecting growing expectations of slower growth and continued monetary easing.
- Stubborn inflation, which keeps real yields suppressed and strengthens the case for holding non-yielding assets like gold.
Dollar weakness likely to persist
We expect the US dollar to remain under pressure as markets increasingly question the sustainability of the country’s fiscal trajectory. The US debt-to-GDP ratio continues to climb, while the political gridlock over fiscal consolidation adds to investor unease.
At the same time, the US Federal Reserve’s eagerness to continue rate cuts, even as other central banks signal a pause, could widen rate differentials in favour of non-dollar currencies. Historically, such environments have coincided with strong gold performance.
Dollar depreciation tends to be gold-price positive, as it enhances affordability for non-US investors and highlights gold’s role as a store of value.
Figure 3: Gold and US Dollar
Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. January 1971 –September 2025. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance, and any investments may go down in value.
Bond yields add fuel to the rally
After a period of rising yields in 2023, the US 10-year Treasury yield has been trending lower again, reflecting expectations that the Fed will have to remain accommodative for longer.
Falling nominal yields and anchored inflation expectations have led to a renewed decline in real yields, a critical driver of gold’s valuation.
With the real yield curve back in negative territory across shorter maturities, the opportunity cost of holding gold has diminished substantially, adding fundamental support to prices.
Figures 4: Gold and real yields
Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. January 2025 to October 2025. Daily data. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance, and any investments may go down in value.
Conclusion: Still room to run
While gold’s recent rally has been dramatic, the macroeconomic backdrop suggests it may have further to go.
Persistent fiscal concerns, slowing global growth momentum and ongoing monetary easing should continue to underpin demand. In our recently published Gold Outlook to Q3 2026: Structural Tailwinds and Policy Fragilities, we project that gold could reach $4,530/oz under consensus macroeconomic assumptions. However, bond yields have already fallen more than consensus had expected and we expect the dollar depreciation pressure to be stronger than that implied by consensus. Gold could very easily rise above $5,000/oz in a year’s time.
Investors should be mindful of the potential for short-term consolidation after such strong gains. Any retracement could provide an opportunity to accumulate exposure at more attractive levels, particularly if real yields continue to trend lower and the dollar remains weak.