WisdomTree
Gold Monthly
July 2025

Nitesh Shah
Head of Commodities and Macroeconomic Research, WisdomTree Europe
Nitesh Shah is a seasoned financial professional with over 24 years of experience in research and investment strategy. As Head of Commodities & Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree Europe, he leads market analysis and insights across asset classes, with a focus on commodities and exchange-traded products. Previously, he held roles at Moody’s, HSBC Investment Bank, The Pension Protection Fund, and Decision Economics, building expertise in market analysis and strategy.
Nitesh earned a master’s degree in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University and a bachelor's in Economics from the London School of Economics. His insights are frequently featured in financial media, and he is a sought-after speaker at industry events. He also hosts the ‘Commodity Exchange’ podcast, where he discusses trends shaping global markets. Passionate about guiding investors, Nitesh provides actionable insights to help them navigate complex financial landscapes.
Gold Monthly: Supported for next leg of growth
Geopolitical support
Gold prices in June were primarily supported by heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. The Geopolitical Risk Index surged to its highest level since March 2022 — the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war — highlighting the market’s sensitivity to global instability.
A major catalyst was the trading of missiles between Israel and Iran (and U.S. involvement). However, a broader conflict was averted when Iran signalled de-escalation through a carefully calibrated response: a symbolic counterattack on a U.S. base in Qatar that resulted in minimal damage. This move allowed Tehran to claim it had retaliated, while simultaneously avoiding a situation where either the U.S. or Israel felt compelled to escalate further.
Following this relative de-escalation, gold has traded within a range throughout July. Nevertheless, geopolitical risks remain a potential driver for future price movements. In particular, tensions between President Trump and President Putin are resurfacing. Trump has expressed increasing frustration over Russia's failure to end the war in Ukraine and has threatened to impose a further 100% tariff on Russian goods. This development could reignite geopolitical uncertainty and lend renewed support to gold.
Figure 1: Gold and geopolitical risk
Technical support
Since reaching its intraday peak of $3,500/oz on 22 April 2025, gold has remained range-bound, trading between $3,180 and $3,400/oz. The lower boundary of this range coincides with the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a strong area of technical support around that level.
Figure 2: Gold price with Fibonacci retracement lines
ETP demand support
In the first half of 2025, gold exchange-traded products (ETPs) saw their strongest inflows since H1 2020, with a net addition of 7.7 million troy ounces, according to Bloomberg data. The World Gold Council reports that North America led the charge, attracting just over half of global inflows into gold ETPs, investment trusts and open-ended investment funds — a broader category than what’s shown in the chart below. Asia, driven primarily by China, captured 26% of global flows, while Europe accounted for 20%.
Asia’s gold ETP market is expanding rapidly. Assets under management rose 79% by metal weight, translating to a more than 145% increase in U.S. dollar terms, highlighting both increased demand and the impact of higher gold prices.
Figure 3: Flows into gold ETPs
Asia’s growing influence on gold prices seems to be reflected in price movements increasingly occurring outside of core London hours.
Figure 4: Gold price moves in different trading time windows
Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg, 31/12/2024 – 08/07/2025. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance, and any investments may go down in value.
Central bank demand support
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) continued its gold buying streak in May, marking seven consecutive months of purchases. With 1.9 tonnes added in May, cumulative purchases in 2025 now stand at 16.8 tonnes.
Figure 5: Central bank reserves survey 5-year expectations
Source: World Gold Council, Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, June 2025. Responses to the following question: “What proportion of total reserves (foreign exchange and gold) do you think will be denominated in gold/Dollar 5 years from now?” Responses of ‘lower’ marked with a negative sign to illustrate expected decreases in reserves. Unchanged and higher marked with positive sign.