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WisdomTree
Gold Monthly
February 2026
Nitesh Shah
Head of Commodities and Macroeconomic Research, WisdomTree Europe
Nitesh Shah is a seasoned financial professional with over 24 years of experience in research and investment strategy. As Head of Commodities & Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree Europe, he leads market analysis and insights across asset classes, with a focus on commodities and exchange-traded products. Previously, he held roles at Moody’s, HSBC Investment Bank, The Pension Protection Fund, and Decision Economics, building expertise in market analysis and strategy.
Nitesh earned a master’s degree in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University and a bachelor's in Economics from the London School of Economics. His insights are frequently featured in financial media, and he is a sought-after speaker at industry events. He also hosts the ‘Commodity Exchange’ podcast, where he discusses trends shaping global markets. Passionate about guiding investors, Nitesh provides actionable insights to help them navigate complex financial landscapes.
Gold's most volatile month
An unprecedented spike in intraday volatility
Friday, 30 January 2026, went down in history as the most volatile day for gold. Measured by the difference between intraday highs and lows (as a percentage of the intraday high), 30 January clearly stands out (Figure 1).
Intraday moves in gold prices
Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree, Daily data, January 1994 to January 2026. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
Extreme price swings in a matter of hours
Heading into the final week of January, gold had already been moving rapidly. On 29 January 2026, gold reached an intraday high of USD 5,595 per ounce, only to retreat below USD 5,200 later the same day. By 2 February, prices had declined to an intraday low of USD 4,402 per ounce, a move of more than USD 1,000/oz in just three trading sessions. Such price swings would typically be expected over the course of a year, not a matter of days.
Market anxiety intensified following President Trump’s attempt to acquire Greenland, reigniting geopolitical risk premia. Gold’s role as a defensive asset gained renewed traction as a result. While no immediate tariffs or use of force were announced, markets remain sensitive to the risk that tensions could re-emerge.
Another source of uncertainty had been the future leadership of the Federal Reserve, particularly whether the next Chair would be perceived as politically independent. The nomination of Kevin Walsh on 30 January appears to have eased some of these concerns, removing a degree of political risk and contributing to the sharp reversal in gold prices.
Over the latest trading sessions (11–13 February), gold has hovered around USD 5,000/oz, fluctuating within a roughly ±USD 100 range. Whether it remains in this band will likely depend on further geopolitical or monetary shocks.
Asia demand
Asian demand is currently in the driving seat. We are now in the Lunar New Year period (15–23 February), which is seasonally one of the strongest periods for gold demand. Encouraged by strong price performance at the beginning of the year, buying has been robust, with gold viewed both as an investment and as jewellery.
While persistently high prices may eventually weigh on jewellery demand, festive-related buying has so far remained resilient. Premiums in Shanghai spiked at the end of January but appear to be moderating.
Shanghai gold premium
Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree, Daily data, February 2010 to February 2026. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
Looking at exchange-traded product (ETP) flows, Chinese and Indian ETPs saw a notable surge in January . Seven of the top 15 global gold ETP inflows were into Chinese and Indian products1. Since Chinese insurance companies and Indian pension funds became eligible to buy gold in 2025, institutional participation appears to have had a significant impact on the scale of demand.
We believe that retail and jewellery demand in Asia may cool after the festive period. However, institutional demand is likely to remain supportive, as relatively new investor groups continue building strategic allocations to gold.
Futures market positioning
Net speculative positioning in COMEX gold futures dipped below the ten-year average, as paper investors sold into the rally and subsequent volatility. What was once viewed as the primary barometer of gold market sentiment now appears increasingly incomplete, given the growth in Asian ETP flows and strong physical demand in over-the-counter markets.
Net speculative positioning in gold futures
Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree, Daily data, February 2016 to February 2026. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
Stablecoin buying
Tether’s latest transparency report (December 2025) indicates that 9.05% of its reserves are held in precious metals (presumably predominantly gold). This equates to approximately USD 17.5bn (around 124 tonnes) in Q4 2025, up from USD 12.9bn (around 115 tonnes) in Q3 2025.
This highlights the pace at which it has been accumulating gold. At an estimated rate of roughly three tonnes per month, Tether’s holdings may now exceed 130 tonnes, placing it on par with the central bank gold reserves of countries such as Egypt or the Philippines.
Geopolitical risks and gold’s direction
Geopolitical risks are likely to remain the focal point for gold markets. The year began with a regime change attempt in Venezuela, followed by President Trump’s demands that Greenland be transferred to US control. Gold prices rallied in response.
While the commencement of nuclear discussions with Iran may be tempering the geopolitical premium in gold, negotiations could last for months and are unlikely to proceed smoothly. Markets should therefore expect further twists and continued sensitivity in gold prices.
Federal Reserve independence
The Supreme Court heard arguments on 21 January 2026 regarding the Trump administration’s emergency application to overturn lower-court orders that have allowed Governor Lisa Cook to remain in her position while her lawsuit continues.
Emergency applications are typically resolved more quickly than full merits cases, often within weeks to a few months of argument. As a result, a decision could be forthcoming.
The ruling may have broader implications for perceptions of Federal Reserve independence. A judgment seen as strengthening executive authority over the Fed could raise questions about institutional autonomy, while a ruling that limits presidential removal power could reinforce confidence in central bank independence.
For gold markets, this matters. Gold is often viewed as an alternative to fiat currencies and a hedge against policy uncertainty. Any development that materially shifts confidence in the institutional framework underpinning monetary policy could therefore influence gold prices.
1 In Asia, demand growth (as a proportion of holdings) was 14% in January 2026. That compared to 2% in North America and 1% and Europe. Asia has a smaller market, with $85bn in AUM, compared to $342bn in North America and $230bn in Europe. The $9.6bn flow into Asia in January 2026 alone dwarfed the $7bn flow into North America and $2bn into Europe. Source: World Gold Council.