The expected US-Iran MoU has shifted oil market focus from supply disruption to supply recovery. While reopening the Strait of Hormuz could restore oil flows, uncertainties remain around security, insurance and sanctions relief. Iranian production recovery and the UAE's exit from OPEC could boost supply, while weak Asian demand raises the risk of a significant oil surplus emerging in 2027.
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Global oil inventories are falling at a record pace as the Strait of Hormuz disruption removes around 13 million barrels per day of supply. While headline inventories remain high, usable stocks are being depleted rapidly. As inventories approach operational limits, the market's ability to absorb further shocks diminishes, increasing the risk of a sharp spike in oil prices.
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The Trump–Xi Beijing summit delivered managed stability, not structural change. Technology, critical minerals and Taiwan remain unresolved. For investors, two themes stand out: Western supply chain diversification in strategic metals and rare earths, and durable agricultural commodity exposure driven by food security and climate risk, not diplomacy.
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