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As the global economy enters a late-cycle expansion in 2026, commodities stand to benefit from structural change rather than cyclical recovery. Dollar headwinds, policy-constrained supply and rising geopolitical fragmentation favour metals, with gold emerging as a strategic reserve asset and copper reflecting long-term electrification demand.
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As the global economy enters a late-cycle expansion in 2026, commodities stand to benefit from structural change rather than cyclical recovery. Dollar headwinds, policy-constrained supply and rising geopolitical fragmentation favour metals, with gold emerging as a strategic reserve asset and copper reflecting long-term electrification demand.
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LME Week 2025 will highlight a growing divide in base metals. Nickel output, led by Indonesia, continues to surge, deepening surpluses and pressuring prices. Copper, meanwhile, faces shrinking supply and rising risks of deficit by 2026. Forecasts from the International Study Groups from the prior week reveal sharply diverging market paths.
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Copper prices are surging amid expected U.S. import tariffs, tight physical supply, and strong Chinese demand. COMEX prices outpace global benchmarks as traders pre-position. Market backwardation, mine disruptions, and falling Chinese refining charges point to growing shortages. A bullish outlook is likely for the rest of 2025.
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Copper is stealing the spotlight in 2025 — and for good reason. From looming US tariffs to China’s stimulus push and mounting supply challenges, multiple forces are driving prices higher. Find out why copper is red hot right now and what it could mean for markets in the months ahead.
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In the Year of the Snake, we seek ‘antivenoms’ against risks like trade wars, a strong US dollar, and China's economic struggles. We see strong opportunities in gold, silver, aluminium, copper, zinc, and European natural gas, which have resilient drivers. As policies clarify, fears may ease, leading to a relief rally. Until then, we rely on these protective investments.
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China has signalled a policy shift to more assertive monetary and fiscal support. Copper, crucial for China's high-tech sectors like EVs and real estate, benefits as these areas grow. The yuan may also weaken to boost exports. While not as expansive as 2008 stimuli, these steps could drive copper demand across emerging and traditional sectors.
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