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THE WisdomTree BLOG

Viktor Nossek / Macro Alerts, Europe / Eurozone, Fixed Income, Short & Leverage 12 Dec 2017

How to hedge safe haven duration risk with ultra-long short strategies

Viktor Nossek
If now is the time to consider hedging the downside risks to eurozone long-dated fixed-income portfolios, then leveraged short ETPs tracking ultra-long German Bunds can serve as capital efficient hedging tools for investors seeking to protect their high grade, high-duration portfolios from these risks.
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Viktor Nossek / Macro Alerts, Short & Leverage, Fixed Income, Europe / Eurozone 27 Sep 2017

Europe’s “back to normal” leaves safe havens at risk: Should you hedge German Bunds?

Viktor Nossek

The European political uncertainty and risks posed to financial markets are—for now—over. A Liberals-led mainstream coalition in The Netherlands firmly aligned with Germany’s EU agenda and a pro-European President of France upending fringe/extreme sentiment preserves the status quo. Also, Germany’s election in September was largely a non-event with Merkel this year leading early on in the polls and the Social Democrats headed by Martin Schulz as runner up. The far right AFD coming as third largest was the main surprise and will complicate Merkel’s efforts to create and run a coalition government. Italy is unlikely to have its election until 2018.

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Nizam Hamid / Education, Equities, Europe / Eurozone, Short & Leverage 30 Aug 2017

How to use ETPs to manage equity risk

Nizam Hamid
Equity markets, as represented by MSCI Europe and the Euro STOXX 50, have generally followed positive trends reaching multi-year highs in the middle of May this year. At the same time investors have been faced with a benign environment in terms of volatility. This has been the case for both realised volatility that has remained at low levels, and Euro STOXX 50 Implied Volatility that has only recently drifted higher on the back of rising geopolitical tensions. The European macro-economic backdrop for equities has remained positive with a renewed focus on stronger underlying growth, and limited political risk compared to the first part of 2017. However, as recent market events have shown there is every reason for investors to consider efficient tools to help manage overall portfolio risk.
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Nizam Hamid / Macro Alerts, Short & Leverage 04 Aug 2017

How to use ETPs to hedge fixed income portfolios

Nizam Hamid

Fixed income has been at the heart of European investor portfolios for many years with average allocations in 2016 standing at 51%. Even in an environment of low or negative yielding domestic government bonds, overall allocations have remained high. Now Eurozone government bond investors are overwhelmingly focused on the risks relating to the end of quantitative easing and the potential for a rise in interest rates at some point in 2018. 

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Jose Poncela / Macro Alerts, Short & Leverage 02 Aug 2017

Italian banks: favourable transformations

Jose Poncela
The Italian banking industry is experiencing a profound transformation. The sector’s restructuring efforts through recapitalisations, cost cutting and M&A have strengthened balance sheets and we believe, as shown in chart 1 below, that many companies are trading at deep discounts versus their European peers. While some argue that this restructuring is reducing their discounts, given the ECB continues to be supportive through cheap loans and that the macro backdrop for the Eurozone economy is stabilising, we believe Italian banks’ strong run may still be sustained.

 

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Viktor Nossek / Macro Alerts, Short & Leverage, Equities, Equity Income, Europe / Eurozone 19 Jul 2017

European macro outlook: Italy

Viktor Nossek
Italy’s failure to pass a new electoral law last year means it must now hold elections during a period when the 2018 budget must be approved. This presents a risk to political stability. Unless Italy gets budgetary flexibility and is allowed more leeway for deficit spending from the EU, the budget is unlikely to get sufficient parliamentary backing. The instability this creates politically provokes renewed speculative attacks on Italian sovereigns and bank stocks. Italy’s fragile government and banking sector means the President and head of state Sergio Mattarella —who has the sole power to dissolve parliament—will not risk elections to take place without a budget signed off first. Given the high stakes, it may mean elections get pushed back to 2018. The Eurosceptic 5 Star Movement, despite having suffered several setbacks in recent local elections, continues to poll strongly nationally and is neck-on-neck with the centre-left Democratic Party. 
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Viktor Nossek / Macro Alerts, Short & Leverage, Equities, Equity Income, Europe / Eurozone 19 Jul 2017

European macro outlook: UK

Viktor Nossek
Expectations of a hard Brexit that triggered a marked devaluation of Sterling last year have effectively reversed since a now markedly weakened PM in charge of a minority government must lead the exit negotiations with diminished political capital/leverage. Britain looks ready to make more concessions to the EU than previously envisioned. Philip Hammond, UK’s finance minister, has already stated that the vote to leave the EU was not a vote for Britain to become insecure or poorer, thus prioritising the economy over anything else. We believe the stance by taken by the Treasury Department will help to stabilise the Sterling in the short term.
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Viktor Nossek / Macro Alerts, Short & Leverage, Equities, Equity Income, Europe / Eurozone 12 Jul 2017

European macro outlook: France

Viktor Nossek
Macron’s labour market reforms appear difficult to enact in the face of historic stiff opposition from labour unions. But unlike his predecessor Francois Hollande, who ran on a socialist agenda, Macron is different in that as an “independent” he can be more confrontational with labour unions and force them to negotiate. The clear pro-business mandate laid out in his reform agenda during his campaign should make it politically easier for Macron to extract more concessions from labour unions than Hollande ever could. Ruling by decree also means he could bypass parliament seeking amendments to bills.
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Viktor Nossek / Macro Alerts, Short & Leverage, Equities, Equity Income, Europe / Eurozone 10 Jul 2017

European macro outlook: France reform agenda aids bullish Eurozone growth, Italian elections undermine Euro

Viktor Nossek

Sentiment in Eurozone risk assets has improved. Macron’s pro-EU and pro-growth reform agenda and EU regulators’ swift intervention to deal with weak lenders and bad loans are a major driving force to sustain it. A softer version of UK’s exit from the EU also means UK risk sentiment should stay upbeat as uncertainty over trade and capital flows is reduced.

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Nizam Hamid / Macro Alerts, Short & Leverage 05 Jul 2017

Post the OPEC meeting: What now?

Nizam Hamid

The recent OPEC meeting revealed no new news with respect to production cuts or the ability of OPEC to stabilise the oil price. Whilst there was a commitment for a longer period of production adjustments for a further nine months with effect from 1 July 2017 the meeting concluded with a lack of discussion of deeper cuts. What was revealed was just how dependent the oil price is on other factors and data points, something that we previously highlighted in our blog Five things you need to know about trading oil.

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Nizam Hamid / Macro Alerts, Short & Leverage, Commodities 24 May 2017

Oil: Trading opportunities ahead

Nizam Hamid

As we approach the next OPEC meeting on 25th May, the oil price is getting closer to a critical juncture with pressure on OPEC producers to restrain supply, rises in oil stock levels and the rebound in shale oil. Volatility remains the one overriding feature of the oil price and even if OPEC comes to an agreement on further production cuts this may not be enough to create a more stable oil price environment.

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Nick Leung / Macro Alerts, Equities, Short & Leverage 04 May 2017

Le Pen vs Macron: How is your portfolio positioned?

Nick Leung

In the first round of the French elections on Sunday 23 April, Marine Le Pen, the candidate of the far-right National Front, won 21.7 percent of the vote, securing her place in the second round of the French presidential election. She’s facing Emmanuel Macron, the independent, who won the first round with 23.7% of the vote. In this article we outline how investors might consider positioning their portfolios around France’s second—and final—election on Sunday 7 May.

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WisdomTree / Macro Alerts, Short & Leverage 18 Apr 2017

Five things you need to know about trading oil

WisdomTree
Oil is an important commodity that investors track with great interest, but how best to judge the key trends—and what are the main nuances of the market? At the end of last year, OPEC agreed a deal where the cartel would cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day while the non-OPEC countries also agreed a further reduction of 558,000 barrels a day.
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Nick Leung / Short & Leverage, Macro Alerts, Commodities 10 Apr 2017

Oil supply glut not yet over: Learn how to position around oil’s latest slump

Nick Leung
The resurgence of US shale is undermining oil market fundamentals once again. Despite OPEC’s best efforts to pump up oil prices, recent surges in US stockpiles to record highs point to a global oil supply glut that is showing no signs of improvement. Unless market dynamics change, the short-term outlook for oil prices is likely to be bearish and volatile. This may entice tactical investors to take up positions using short and leveraged ETPs, whilst strategic investors may consider this an attractive entry point to boost their long-term oil exposure.
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Viktor Nossek / Short & Leverage, Macro Alerts, Europe / Eurozone 30 Mar 2017

ECB tapering: positive for Italian banks

Viktor Nossek
The Eurozone’s deeply discounted banking sector—particularly Italy’s—offers investors a potential entry point as long-dated government debt comes under pressure and the yield curve steepening that this instigates has revived carry trade opportunities.
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Viktor Nossek

Director of Research

Viktor, who has over 14 years’ experience in research, joined the firm from Renaissance Asset Managers where he was Head of Research. Viktor provides macro research on various themes covering equities, commodities and fixed income. His research for WisdomTree in Europe offers investment strategies for the current range of Smart Beta UCITS ETFs as well as the Boost range of short and leveraged Exchange Traded Notes. Viktor has previously worked as a Research Analyst at BlackRock and Thomson Financial. He started his career as an Equity Strategist at Commerzbank, after he completed a Masters in Economics from Maastricht University, in the Netherlands.

Nizam Hamid

ETF Strategist

Nizam Hamid is an ETF Strategist for WisdomTree in Europe and has extensive experience in the European ETF market. Prior to this he was at C8 Investments, a systematic hedge fund, focusing on business development and quantitative strategies, before that he was a consultant at FTSE. From 2010 to 2012, he was Head of ETF Strategy and Deputy Head of Lyxor ETFs, at the time Europe’s second largest ETF issuer. Before joining Lyxor he was Head of Sales Strategy for the Europe and the Middle East at iShares in London. Prior to that, he was Global Head of ETFs, Portfolio and Index Strategy at Deutsche Bank from 1998 to 2008. He has also worked as a quantitative analyst in London and Tokyo for UBS, BZW and Bankers Trust / NatWest Markets. He holds a Degree in Economics from the University of Liverpool.

Nick Leung

Research Analyst

Nick Leung is a Research Analyst for WisdomTree in Europe. He is responsible for macroeconomic commentary and analysis, formulating investment strategies and trade ideas, as well as the maintenance of research collateral. Prior to joining in 2015, Nick was at Source, having completed his Master’s Degree at Imperial College London. During this time he was also involved in an ice-cream entrepreneurship project with Unilever. Nick holds a BA in Economics from the University of Nottingham.

Jose Poncela

Head of ETNs

Jose is Head of ETNs for WisdomTree in Europe and is responsible for managing WisdomTree’s Boost ETP platform and products. Prior to joining Boost/WisdomTree as a founding employee in 2012, Jose held positions as a structurer of strategic equity transactions at UBS and Nomura and qualified as an attorney working for a major US law firm. He holds an MBA from London Business School, Master in Laws from Fordham University in New York and legal and business degrees from Spanish universities.

Jason Guthrie

Director of Capital Markets

Jason Guthrie is Director of Capital Markets for WisdomTree in Europe. Guthrie is responsible for ensuring smooth trade execution across WisdomTree’s UCITS ETFs and Boost ETPs throughout Europe, Israel and Latin America. Prior to joining WisdomTree, Guthrie worked at Deutsche Bank within its ETF Capital Markets group. Before Deutsche Bank, he worked at Macquarie Bank as an Investment Executive based in Sydney, Australia. Jason holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance) from Macquarie University in Sydney.

Jesper Koll

WisdomTree's Head of Japan

Jesper Koll was appointed Chief Executive Officer of WisdomTree Japan on July 1, 2015. Over the past two decades Jesper has been consistently ranked as one of the top Japan strategists/economists, working as Chief Strategist and Head of Research for major U.S. investment banks J.P. Morgan and Merrill Lynch. His analysis and insights have earned him a position on several Japanese government advisory committees and Jesper is also one of the few non-Japanese members of the Keizai Doyukai, the Japan Association of Corporate Executives. He has written two books in Japanese, Towards a New Japanese Golden Age and The End of Heisei Deflation. After arriving in Japan in 1986 Jesper initially worked as an aide to a Member of Parliament. Jesper has a Masters degree from the School of Advanced and International Studies at Johns Hopkins University and was a research fellow at both Tokyo University and Kyoto University. He is a graduate of the Lester B. Pearson College of the Pacific.

Vania Pang

Capital Markets and Investment Solutions, Index and Quantitative Investment, ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management (International) Company Limited

Ms. Pang is responsible for Capital Markets and Investment Solutions functions of the Index and Quantitative Investment department at the ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management (International) Company Limited. From 2012 to 2016, Ms. Pang was the Vice President of Corporate Strategy and Development, Asia Coal Limited, where she led the strategic mergers and acquisitions, capital raising and investor relations management. Prior to that, she was the Associate Director, Business Development of Crown One Asset Management Company Limited, responsible for sales and marketing of fund products. Between 2007 and 2008, Ms. Pang was Assistant Manager, Public Distribution Hong Kong (Equity Derivatives and Private Investor Product Sales) of RBS, handling sales and marketing of listed equity derivatives products. Before joining RBS, she was an anchor and reporter with the Cable TV and Hong Kong Economic Journal.

Ms. Pang holds a M.Sc. in Development Finance from The University of Manchester, a M.A. in Journalism and a B.A. in Business Administration from The Chinese University of Hong Kong. 

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