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THE WisdomTree BLOG

Jesper Koll / Japan, Macro Alerts 26 Apr 2017

Japan outlook—Show me the money

Jesper Koll

We maintain our view that Japanese risk assets—equities and real estate—are on track for a multiyear structural bull market. We believe 2017 is poised to bring a positive reversal of earnings momentum, with a pickup in top-line sales growth and a weaker currency capable of delivering 25% to 30% earnings growth (after last year’s drop of around 8%, calendar year). Given the relatively attractive valuation backdrop—TOPIX is trading at a modest discount to its 10-year averages on both trailing and forward P/E multiples—the rising visibility of earnings is likely to be the principal driver of Japan’s market performance. In contrast, we expect policy action and initiatives to be relatively less important market drivers for Japan, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to stay put and maintain its zero-rate 10-year bond yield target for the foreseeable future.

Jesper Koll / Japan, Macro Alerts 13 Apr 2017

Pivot to the Pacific? Is it “risk on” Asia?

Jesper Koll

“Team Trump” demonstrated exemplary global economic leadership skills at last week’s Summit between President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping. Most importantly, both leaders agreed to a concrete agenda of dialogue and engagement: At the working level, both nations committed to a “100-day plan” to address bi-lateral trade issues, with progress overseen by the two Presidents directly; and at the top level, President Trump accepted President Xi’s invitation for a follow-on bi-lateral Summit in China sometime later this year. 

Jesper Koll / Macro Alerts, Japan, US 07 Feb 2017

Trump's America & Abe's Japan - Concrete Proposals

Jesper Koll
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is poised to be the first global leader to present President Trump with a concrete policy proposal that is designed to shape and promote Trump’s “America First” agenda and, at the same time, to advance the US-Japan alliance. After meeting the then President-elect for the first time on November 17, Abe will meet Trump for the second time on 10-11 February and PM Abe appears very determined to impress the President by offering a concrete “deal” so that both countries can move from talk to action. If, as we suspect, the meeting goes well, the implications are poised to be positive for US-Japan economic and financial relations.
WisdomTree / Macro Alerts, Japan, US 24 Jan 2017

How the Yen and Japanese equities benefit from the changes in US Treasury yields

We believe the Yen, which rallied approximately 18% through the first three quarters of 2016, did so in part because expectations for Fed rate hikes were lowered in the first six weeks of 2016. That’s changed dramatically since Trump’s election, as prospects for future inflation and future GDP growth have improved. The Yen has weakened while US rates and the Dollar rose. This is providing a tailwind for Japanese stocks and for the earnings expectations for Japanese multinationals and Japanese banks this year. If one were neutralising the currency, Japanese stocks have been one of the best performing asset classes since Trump’s victory – up more than 17%[1]. Given the current differential in interest rates, we believe investors wishing to gain exposure to the Japanese, and even European, equity markets should consider doing so in a currency-hedged fashion.
Jesper Koll / Macro Alerts, Japan 10 Jan 2017

2017 Japan outlook: poised to perform

Jesper Koll
Japanese risk assets – equities and real estate – remain on track for a multi-year structural bull market. For the new year, we anticipate strong performance, driven by an upturn in the business cycle in general, the earnings cycle in particular. From a starting point of attractive valuations – TOPIX currently trades on a PE that is at a discount to both its own long-term average and to Wall Street multiples – we think Japanese equities could rise as much as 20%, i.e. TOPIX could climb back up to the 1,800 level last seen one decade ago, in 2007.
Jesper Koll / Macro Alerts, Japan 05 Dec 2016

Japan equities: performance power that can last

Jesper Koll
Japanese equities have been made great again by the Trump victory – they have outperformed most global markets since 8 November, with TOPIX up 7.2% against the 3% rise in the S&P 500[1]. We believe that, Japan’s recent performance is not just a one-off adjustment but does have the potential to develop into a broad-based rally throughout the next 12-18 months. In coming weeks, any consolidation after the recent strong rally offers a great opportunity to reconsider a sizeable Japan allocation to capture positive momentum for Dollar investors. 
Jesper Koll / Macro Alerts, Japan 14 Nov 2016

Match made in heaven

Jesper Koll
Prime Minister Abe is poised to be the first global leader to meet with President-elect Trump, Thursday November 17 in New York. In our view, the meeting is likely to underscore a strong US-Japan alliance, with possible positive implication for US-Japan economic and financial relations.
Jesper Koll / Macro Alerts, Japan, US 10 Nov 2016

Japan is ready for Trump

Jesper Koll
Against the initial risk-off shock reaction in Japanese markets, I think Japan is actually well prepared for a Trump Presidency. In my view, Team Abe will surprise by speedy and constructive counter policy - a sizable fiscal "war chest" has been put aside already, de-facto monetized by a BoJ committed to cap borrowing costs at zero percent.
Jesper Koll / Macro Alerts, Japan 12 Jul 2016

From “Abe Envy” to “Japan Premium”

Jesper Koll
Prime Minister Abe won a decisive victory in Sunday’s Upper House polls. His ruling coalition now holds a “super majority” control of both houses of parliament, i.e. holds de-facto more than two-thirds of all Parliamentary seats.

Nizam Hamid

ETF Strategist

Nizam Hamid is an ETF Strategist for WisdomTree in Europe and has extensive experience in the European ETF market. Prior to this he was at C8 Investments, a systematic hedge fund, focusing on business development and quantitative strategies, before that he was a consultant at FTSE. From 2010 to 2012, he was Head of ETF Strategy and Deputy Head of Lyxor ETFs, at the time Europe’s second largest ETF issuer. Before joining Lyxor he was Head of Sales Strategy for the Europe and the Middle East at iShares in London. Prior to that, he was Global Head of ETFs, Portfolio and Index Strategy at Deutsche Bank from 1998 to 2008. He has also worked as a quantitative analyst in London and Tokyo for UBS, BZW and Bankers Trust / NatWest Markets. He holds a Degree in Economics from the University of Liverpool.

Viktor Nossek

Director of Research

Viktor, who has over 14 years’ experience in research, joined the firm from Renaissance Asset Managers where he was Head of Research. Viktor provides macro research on various themes covering equities, commodities and fixed income. His research for WisdomTree in Europe offers investment strategies for the current range of Smart Beta UCITS ETFs as well as the Boost range of short and leveraged Exchange Traded Notes. Viktor has previously worked as a Research Analyst at BlackRock and Thomson Financial. He started his career as an Equity Strategist at Commerzbank, after he completed a Masters in Economics from Maastricht University, in the Netherlands.

Nick Leung

Research Analyst

Nick Leung is a Research Analyst for WisdomTree in Europe. He is responsible for macroeconomic commentary and analysis, formulating investment strategies and trade ideas, as well as the maintenance of research collateral. Prior to joining in 2015, Nick was at Source, having completed his Master’s Degree at Imperial College London. During this time he was also involved in an ice-cream entrepreneurship project with Unilever. Nick holds a BA in Economics from the University of Nottingham.

Jesper Koll

WisdomTree's Head of Japan

Jesper Koll was appointed Chief Executive Officer of WisdomTree Japan on July 1, 2015. Over the past two decades Jesper has been consistently ranked as one of the top Japan strategists/economists, working as Chief Strategist and Head of Research for major U.S. investment banks J.P. Morgan and Merrill Lynch. His analysis and insights have earned him a position on several Japanese government advisory committees and Jesper is also one of the few non-Japanese members of the Keizai Doyukai, the Japan Association of Corporate Executives. He has written two books in Japanese, Towards a New Japanese Golden Age and The End of Heisei Deflation. After arriving in Japan in 1986 Jesper initially worked as an aide to a Member of Parliament. Jesper has a Masters degree from the School of Advanced and International Studies at Johns Hopkins University and was a research fellow at both Tokyo University and Kyoto University. He is a graduate of the Lester B. Pearson College of the Pacific.

Vania Pang

Capital Markets and Investment Solutions, Index and Quantitative Investment, ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management (International) Company Limited

Ms. Pang is responsible for Capital Markets and Investment Solutions functions of the Index and Quantitative Investment department at the ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management (International) Company Limited. From 2012 to 2016, Ms. Pang was the Vice President of Corporate Strategy and Development, Asia Coal Limited, where she led the strategic mergers and acquisitions, capital raising and investor relations management. Prior to that, she was the Associate Director, Business Development of Crown One Asset Management Company Limited, responsible for sales and marketing of fund products. Between 2007 and 2008, Ms. Pang was Assistant Manager, Public Distribution Hong Kong (Equity Derivatives and Private Investor Product Sales) of RBS, handling sales and marketing of listed equity derivatives products. Before joining RBS, she was an anchor and reporter with the Cable TV and Hong Kong Economic Journal.

Ms. Pang holds a M.Sc. in Development Finance from The University of Manchester, a M.A. in Journalism and a B.A. in Business Administration from The Chinese University of Hong Kong. 


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