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Macro Alerts
Uncovering Value in Emerging Markets
16 Dec 2015
WisdomTree


WisdomTree Europe

At WisdomTree, a critical way for us to identify valuation opportunities is through our annual index rebalance. Our process is designed to evaluate the underlying fundamentals of index constituents each year. For our dividend indices, this translates to reweighting companies in an index relative to their contribution to the Dividend Stream®—the sum total of all dividends paid within a given index. We impart a disciplined focus on valuation, typically by:
  • Increasing weight to firms that are growing their dividends—especially in cases where share price performance has not yet responded
  • Decreasing weight from firms that see their dividends decrease, especially following runs of strong share price appreciation
Looking at current valuations across the world, some of the lowest-priced stocks are found in the emerging markets, and if you screen and weight these securities based on fundamentals, you can improve the valuation characteristics even further. The WisdomTree Emerging Markets Equity Income Index screens by dividend yield and then weights by dividends, typically resulting in a deep value exposure. The Index provides a dividend yield advantage of almost 400 basis points (bps) and is priced 22% lower on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio basis, compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Figures 1 and 2 provide detailed changes in sector and country exposures for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets Equity Income Index.

 

  • Country Increases:Typically EM Equity Income’s value-seeking rebalancing process leads to adding weight to countries that underperformed and subtracting weight from countries that outperformed, but dividend growth also plays a role. So although Taiwan exhibited decent relative performance, its relative dividend growth was stronger, ultimately increasing the relationship between dividends and prices, earning a larger weight. Weight was also added to South Korea primarily due to strong dividend growth. More classic examples of where this strategy has typically added weight are Brazil and Indonesia. Both of these countries exhibited poor relative performance and had dividends grow at a higher rate than their price performance.
  • Country Decreases:Although Russia exhibited poor performance over the period, its dividends contracted even more, decreasing the relationship between dividends and prices, earning a lower weight. Mexico and Malaysia also saw their weights lowered, both resulting from their dividends falling further than their price depreciation.
  • Sector Increases:Again, typically EM Equity Income’s value-seeking rebalancing process leads to subtracting weight from sectors that outperformed, but dividend growth also plays a role. So although the Information Technology sector displayed the highest relative performance, the sector also displayed the highest dividend growth, receiving a larger weight. Although the Materials sector saw dividends contract over the period, they didn’t fall as much as the price performance, ultimately earning a higher weight because the relationship between dividends and price improved.
  • Sector Decreases:It is no surprise to us, given the lower oil prices over the past year, that the Energy sector saw a decrease in weight, primarily driven by dividends decreasing. Financials saw the most significant decrease in weight, but the weight reduction is a result of a 25% sector-capping rule. Financials saw positive relative performance over the year, which allowed its weight to drift higher, so bringing it back in line with the capping rule is part of a rules-based, systematic process.
Investors sharing this sentiment may consider the following UCITS ETF:

WisdomTree Emerging Markets Equity Income UCITS ETF (DEM)

All data is sourced from WisdomTree Europe and Bloomberg, unless otherwise stated.

Macro Alerts, Emerging Markets


This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, its officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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